Securing the Energy System: Hybrid Threats, Cybersecurity and Blackout Preparedness | Tobias Federico, Montel

Yeah, thank you very much, thank you, Christian, I'm happy that you introduced me as a crystal ball, and not as a Mozart ball, actually that would be a nice nickname for me because I love those. Could be also been a room truffle, but crystal ball, I like that. Yes, so, warm welcome from my side, I have a question for you. Who of you, does it work? It works, remembers that? Especially connected to maybe, the ADXR colleagues, the ADXR colleagues? No? Any Austrians in the room? Peter? Yeah? Yeah? Remember that? No? Nobody? It was a campaign in Austria in the year 2019 to introduce non-smoking into public restaurants, something which has been done a lot in Europe already. There was a huge discussion going on in Austria about that. It was the same year where we had that. That was a real crisis. That was a real crisis. In Germany, we had a real discussion going on about having a printed receipt when you go to the bakery just to buy some bread. These have been the biggest problems we saw back in the years. And that was 2019. Now look at now, we had the year 2020 with the corona crisis and so on. So obviously, right now, we have some other problems than back in the days. That's why there are a different type of crisis. Sometimes there's an issue. And the next level of issue is a problem. And then the next level of a problem is a crisis. And what comes after that? Our current situation. It's a poorly crisis. So we are having a lot of crisis going around in the world, locally and all over the places. And not to get mad, it's really complicated. But look at one thing. The importance of the Strait of Hormuz, I mean, we talked quite a lot about it. It's in general media. Every maritime choke point is an issue when it comes to traffic, maritime traffic. Maritime traffic is connected to oil and gas deliveries. It's connected to delivery of goods. There are a lot of maritime choke points around. Those are the most important ones in that region, Strait of Hormuz, the Bam and Mandep, where the Houthi rebels sometimes attack also some vessels. But we have also some in Europe, which is the Strait of Denmark, the Öresund. So that is also a maritime choke point and could become somehow interesting in the future. Not really energy related, but geopolitically related. Why the Strait of Hormuz is important, you can see here on that level, on that graph, on the other side, a lot of energy volumes are going to be traded around that. We saw the impact in the market. It's still active today, connected to gas storage. We see, obviously, our gas storage are not that filled with much in Germany, at least. And now people are getting nervous. But even that was easy to predict. So I'm not a crystal ball. It's somehow logic. But right now the people are getting nervous. But obviously we are not that nervous for a long period of time. This winter might be an issue, but for next year, if you look into the price forward curves of natural gas, they're going down a bit. And the reason is, well, we are having a lot of new liquefaction volumes coming to the market and to the system within the next years. So only the US is compensating that volume, which today is missing out of Qatar within the next four years. So in the price forward curves, you can see that the gas prices are going down. And there's not only the US. We also have the rest of the world, which is Africa, which is South America. Which is a bit easier. They are also increasing the liquefaction capacities. And with that, I'm quite sure that we will have a certain surplus of natural gas later in the year 2018. Maybe not next year. Definitely not this winter. And that's definitely an issue. And as you can see here, we are having a problem with our gas storage a bit. Still, we don't have a volume risk in the gas market, because I still think that we can cope the winter depending on the weather. Yeah, that's a bet I don't want to do. On the other hand, it's a bit that we're still having LNG as additional surplus delivery, especially in Germany. But German politicians and all the market is only looking at storage levels. But we also have to take into account that we are getting quite high volumes of LNG. The big problem is here that we are not dependent anymore from Russian gas. We are depending on US gas. And I don't know if Trump and his behavior, if that is so good. But nevertheless, what we also can see, that natural gas has become a global market over all the years. So that's not really a recent development. It became interesting in the year 2016, when the US for the first time became net energy exporter. Before that, they have been importing energy. And their foreign policy was mostly focused on how to protect the energy sources. Right now, they're much more interested in how to protect my delivery markets of the energy. That's why they're so interested in Europe. And they want to really protect politically also their energy exporting facilities. But we also can see these are the price forward curves from the TTF and from JKM, which is the Japan Korean market, so Asia. And the curves are mostly alike. This is clear because we have a global competition there. But we also can see on the right-hand side, this is an analysis of the short-run marginal cost of the transportation out of the US to Europe and to Asia via either the Suez Canal, Panama, or the Cape of Good Hope. Because in case those two maritime choke points are closed, we still can make the Cape of Good Hope. That's not really a choke point. The problem is it takes 80 days. But then it's a question, of course. Nevertheless, what you can see is that both forward curves, the upper one is the TTF one, the lower one on the right-hand side is the JKM one, they are lower than the short-run marginal costs in the year 2030. Which means that today's market prices, what you can trade for the year 2030 for natural gas, is lower than production costs more or less, which means that these prices will increase. So we will have a surplus of gas, but right now obviously not. But I don't want to speak about gas because we have a lot of colleagues who will speak about gas today, especially with the Austrian situation. I rather would like to speak about the other threats we are having around. And this year, again, we are at a polycrisis. Montel is having an office in Berlin. I personally come from Berlin, I actually lived also in that area, where we had to blackout for five days. And that was a really critical one in a sense. It was wintertime, it was bloody cold, so minus 10 degrees. But luckily, we had a situation that it was officially a brownout. So only one area and it's not a whole nationwide blackout. But even with a brownout, you have different levels of threats, I would call them. Because what I just realized that here we have been quite lucky because the power was off. Yeah, that's not really good. The mobile connection network was offline. But there was still water pressure and we still had natural gas pressure. Which meant that you could, in theory, live at home. Because you had water and you had natural gas. So you could heat your home, but the power was missing. What was much more of a problem was the communication part. Because if you are not communicating, you don't know what's going on. You don't know how big that is. How you don't know where to get help from. You can't call the police in case of there's any type of robbery going around. But no problem. You know, the Berlin government was really helping. They announced we have heating islands and light islands where you also can charge your mobile phone and you can call the police. Because the problem is they informed it via the internet. So that was really stupid. Nevertheless, it was really amazing to see. My ex-wife lives there with my kids. So I brought the kids back to my ex-wife. And their biggest concern was, Daddy, do I have VLAN Wi-Fi? But luckily, my ex-wife was able to organize a small generator. So they connected the heating system, which was natural gas. They have been able to watch some TV. And after two days, they reinstalled the mobile connection. So information was available. And that's even more crucial. We had this blackout in Spain last year. And some of our journalist colleagues have been able to still communicate because they had a mobile connection. One of our colleagues actually didn't. And he had an injury in his ankle, so he couldn't walk even. And he was living on the fifth floor. And he said the biggest problem was, and well, it was in summertime, so that cold was not an issue, but getting the information. And that is really how to inform ourselves in such a situation. In the end, it's supposed to be a far-left group fighting against rich people because that's a rich people area down on the left in Berlin. If it's financed by Russia or not, it's quite unclear. They didn't catch them right now. And it was not the first attack. We had another brownout in summertime the year before in the region. But it's a huge discussion about transparency and how to protect our infrastructure. I will come to that a bit later. The next thing was also happening this summer around in March. Sorry, it's still in German. I didn't translate it. It was the pole nobody talks about. This pole has been cut off, attacked. I think it was in Italy, close to a pump station, close to Eden, connecting the top oil pipeline, which has caused a problem in the pump station for the oil. So for three days in Germany, no crude oil was arriving at the refineries. For them, it's an issue to produce gasoline. But luckily, they had their four-day storage system there. And within three days, Terna was able to reinstall the connection and the pump. But it was in the same time where they stopped the delivery from Russia to a refinery in northern Germany. And I bet this was on purpose. Because if we don't have any delivery of gasoline, it's an issue in the population. Why do we do that? Why do they do it? They want to increase the morale and they want to destabilize our system. And we call that a hybrid war. And what has happened also in the recent days in Germany, we'll come to that a bit later, is part of that hybrid war. Nobody really wants to say that we are at war. But especially in Germany, we are waking up a bit more. I think in Germany we have been quite naive when it came to our relationship to Russia. Due to, I don't know, maybe the history of our Chancellor Schröder and the SPD. But in the end, hybrid warfare has a clear pattern. And the first pattern is we have demoralization. The reason is you want to demoralize the population. Maybe that you use direct information during a crisis. When we saw with Corona how insecure we have been. You want to destabilize in the next step the trust into the authorities. The governmental authorities, the local authorities. And that is going on. With destabilization, there are two types of destabilization. One is the moral destabilization and the other one is the kinetic destabilization. The moral destabilization goes into that you try verbally to attack a critical infrastructure. In a sense, you can't protect this. You have a problem. You are not good enough as a government. Stuff like that. And actually it works. It works quite well. And of course we have the kinetic destabilization. Those two examples I have given to you are part of that. There is a study I will show you a bit later on from the US Congress. About hybrid warfare from Russia and Europe. And that is really amazing if you look and take that into account. And what has happened in September? Last week they found several explosives around power plants. And we have been covering that by the news quite intensively. That it is supposed to be a climate extremist. What they actually did is they have constructed a device. Explosive device to shoot cables to the high voltage lines. To ground these cables to cause a circuit. And then the power plants needed to ramp down. And actually in one they succeeded with one block. Which was 500 megawatt. That did not really impact the market quite a lot. But the other one which was in Western Germany. Impacted a block of around about 3200 megawatt. If I am not wrong. And it caused huge issues in the FCR market. Luckily that worked quite well. But we had extreme FCR prices. But the system was stable. And for that the system has been designed. For such a thing. But just imagine if both would have been on the same time. Affected a total capacity of 6 to 7 gig. In one moment. For that the system currently is not designed. And that is definitely an issue. Honestly. And that is something where we have to really really focus on. The problem is. The situation is. That we are not really prepared. I mean when I am starting discussions. We will have a political evening soon. Soon in Berlin about that. With politicians. We have been seeing that. And saying yeah. No. In the end it is all secure. Of course we see that. But these are tiny little events. They do not really impact quite a lot. But the problem is really that. I think other countries like Austria. They are much better prepared. When we had a situation. A blackout in Berlin. There was one police station. And then went also blackout. And that shouldn't go this way. I mean a police station should be able to be. Effectively running for at least 2 to 3 weeks. That is a plan at least you have in Austria. And I have made a small comparison. When it comes to blackouts. Are we really prepared or not. I know that the Bundeswehr in Austria. They are really trying to prepare something. Since years. There have been tests. They are not there where they want to be. But they are much farther than the German Bundeswehr. Because here. Nobody is really aware of. That the army should be blackout ready. For a long time. Now they are starting a bit. But if something really would happen. We would not have been prepared. The same is for the police. We don't have clear communication rules. As our Bundesländer in Germany. They are not really working together. And when it comes to fire services. The same way. Usually quite often. When it is quite decentralized. Local police departments. And fire stations. They are working on that. But there is no structured plan. So Germany is definitely not prepared. Austria is much better prepared. But it is. As you have seen it. I think a few weeks ago. In a study. It is not really. At the level you want to be. So blackout readiness. Is still an issue. And we are not there. Of course we can do a lot of other things. But when it comes to. Protecting the population. And building up trust in the population. To fight hybrid war. That is something. Where we still have to work on. And the next thing is. And that is the study. From the US Congress. Sorry it is a bit small. But it is quite a lot of information. And you will get the slides anyhow. Has been published. On the 11th of August. To the US Congress. A paper. And the link is down here. About Russian hybrid warfare activities. And if you just look at the map. It is far far more than I had. Because they started in the year 2018. And of course. We have a lot of things going on. It is not only sabotage. It is also assassinations. And we saw that. We saw that also in Berlin. Where a. Politician from the opposite party. Has been shut down in public. In a park in Berlin. And this guy has been exchanged. With one of these US. Basketball players. In Russia. So that was an open assassination. In the street. It is like in a movie. That is a bit weird. Cyber attacks. Are going on quite a lot. Airspace violation. A daily thing. Today. Definitely going on. Especially in the Baltic Sea. So we in Germany. Get that quite a way. But in Romania. It is really often. GPS jamming. Really a lot. And that affects air traffic. That is an issue. Elections. And political interferences. That is something. Which is definitely going on. And weaponized migration. And this migration part. Is really interesting. If you look into Finland. They are buying a fence. We saw the situation. In Estland. In Poland. To Belarus. That they found tunnels. Under the border. For migrants. To integrate into Europe. To cause destabilization. If Kuwaiter. The thing which happened in Spain. Is also connected to that. It is not really clear. But what is the result. Is clear. There is increasing insecurity. And increasing mistrust. In local authority. And what is going to happen then. Of course. If you are able to. Manipulate. Or influence. Not manipulate. Influence elections. Of the population. For elections. You will have results. And I have to talk about this. What has happened. Last weekend. In Germany. In the Bundesland Sachsen-Anhalt. Where the far right party. Didn't luckily win the majority. But is close to. And if you look. In the potential coalition. And the far right party. Is super Russian friendly. One of the coalition possibilities. Is with the far left party. So right and left. Make a circle. And they connect. With their Russia friendliness. They together. Could form. A government. A regional government. And that is. Beyond all the discussions. We had. It will never happen again. In Germany. Critical. When it comes to. Critical infrastructure. And accessing. Informations. To critical infrastructure. Because. If you are part. Of the ministry. Of a Bundesland. You have access. To a lot of secure information. And it's super secure. That these informations. Will go to Russia. So I am super confident. And that is. A real problem. And with all the other parties. Either they form. A coalition. If they are not able. To form a coalition. We will have re-elections. And I don't know. What is coming then. So. It is a poly crisis. And we are still there. And we are still in it. Now coming to. Our friend. In America. America. This was one part. Of the geopolitical report. I don't know. If you see that. We have on our guest platform. The geopolitical report. It's a monthly issue. We are writing on. And parts of our ideas. I wouldn't call it forecast. Morten. But parts of our. Weird thinking. Is written down there. And sometimes we are lucky. And it becomes the reality. And sometimes not. But the thing is that. Looking into what Trump has done. And to which countries. He has threatened. This on last year. You see it on the map. And in some countries. He has executed. When it comes to Venezuela. For example. But all the others. We have Nigeria. We have Iraq. We have Syria. Yemen. Greenland. With Denmark. Which is a weird situation. Honestly. And of course Iran. And that then caused. And here. It closed the circle. The Strait of Hormuz. And. Obviously. He miscalculated. The whole thing. He thought. It would have been in Venezuela. A three day thing. Wrapped up. And that's done. And now we have a new government. And then. He has his piece. In this different. Theaters. This different. Military theaters. Because also. What you see. In Europe. Where he says. Europe must defend himself. He is not really supporting Ukraine. And sometimes he does. It's a bit. I think he's going to focus. On what is not signed. On that map. Which is the. Pacific theater. Mostly China. Because he wants to prepare himself. For a potential conflict. With China. And. Looking into that. Is something where. With the current situation. And we had a podcast. With our colleague Richard. Together. About geopolitics. And one of the participants. Said. Well. The US can bomb the hell out of everybody. But they can't protect themselves. As they are not having protective missiles. Against foreign ballistic missiles. So. Why the hell should you bomb someone. If you can't protect yourself. So. That's. That's an issue. And. The problem will be. If. Another player. Who's. A bit quiet in the market. China. Is. Is. Starting. To start. Their own conflict. This morning. I've read. One of the ZDF journalists. She lives in China. She's documenting it. They just released. A new blockbuster. Blaster. Movie. Which says. Unify. Reunify China. China. Because for China. Taiwan is part of China. And. That conflict starts. Then. I don't know. What the next level. Would be. Of a polycrisis. I mean. A bit. It's understandable. For China. Usually. That's our map. And we don't understand. Why they climb the South China Sea. China Sea. So. For them. Because maybe. The name is China. But. China looks. Into the first. Chain of islands. And the second. Chain of island. But. If we just flip the map. A bit. And take. Their point of view. To access. To free sea. To the. To the sea. It's blocked by islands. And most of these islands. Have US military bases. So. China feels. Somehow trapped. And it's only. A question of time. When they. Really want to free themselves. From their point of view. I know. It's not. A very nice ending. But. It's the. It's the kickoff. Of the day. And thanks a lot. For listening. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. There are so many threats. That you. You pinpointed. Tobias. And you say that. Austria is better prepared. Than Germany. Can you think of. The single. Or mention one. Single threat. Which is. Key for Austria. To really. Really. Be aware of. And what is done. From the authorities. To actually handle. That single threat. Well. Austria is not part of NATO. So. So. A NATO conflict. Attack to Russia. Also. A special place. Or. So. That one. Not. But I would say. Blackout. I know that. APG. Is working together. With the Bundeswehr. To. To. Try to prevent that. But. The single threat. I would say. It's a nationwide blackout. Yeah. Christian. Any questions. From your side. I just took with me. That we're going to get through. This winter somehow. Yes. To have a positive note. Without room truffles. Any questions from the floor. To. To BS. It was all. Yeah. Dramatic. Can we say that? Yeah. Yeah. Any positive. There's still hope. Singles out there? There's still hope. Be skeptic to everything. What you read. Only trust. Trusted media. Like us. Yeah. But now in general. Make your own opinion. And don't be naive. And. Yeah. You said. Christian. That this is a walking crystal ball. But he builds his future on scenarios. And one scenario. Have the scenarios been more pessimistic. Lately. Than before. No. Not really. I mean. We've developed. From the different scenarios. They are mostly energy related scenarios. So. Go hydrogen. Go nuclear. Go fossil. But there was one scenario. Which was a tension scenario. Geopolitical tensions. And unfortunately. That really came out. To be that one. It didn't become pessimistic. Because we already draw. The most pessimistic one. And that became reality. Very good. How we can solve all this. What can authorities do here in Austria? Be prepared. Prepare more. That's definitely one. Try to. Of course. Protect your population. And try to listen to their problems. Very good. If there are no further. Comments from the floor. I think we will. Leave there. Tobias. It's a small present from. From Montel. To you. Thank you very much. Then over to you Christian. Thank you Tobias. And for everyone else. If you want to continue. Doom and gloom talk with Tobias. He's available. During the break.