EU ETS Outlook: Carbon Prices, Competitiveness and Investment | Egis Bershani, ClearBlue Markets

Thank you so much and good afternoon all. So yeah as Chris mentioned I'm gonna talk about carbon markets. Today we talked about how Austrian industry can compete while electrifying and I want to take that also in the perspective of carbon markets and also with a caveat there this July European Commission proposed a big legislation package. that changes a little bit the inputs to that answer. So just want to give a bit of a context in the past 20 years of EU ETS industrial companies have been interested in where the price is going. Maybe most of them didn't even need it at the time but now besides the price that's going to be more impactful for the bills also there are a lot of other factors that come into play and I'm gonna talk about that in a bit. So what I will try to answer more about that today is should an industrial operator commit to use a capital to decarbonize right now? How can it do that and is free allowances able to pay for it, help pay for it? So what changed in July is major in terms of free allowances. Industrial companies in the past years have received free allowances to meet their obligations so more or less have a need to deal a lot with the carbon markets. However, policy shifts, their forecast of having or being able to receive these free allowances in the future will need to shift as well. And with a bigger change right now as from 2031 based on this proposal from the European Commission, all of the free allowances that the company or industrial company can receive will become conditional. So the conditionality is basically on a decarbonization plan. You really need a decarbonization plan to be able to receive free allowances starting from 2031 onwards. I'm going to talk a little bit about the prices and how these two interact because it's quite important part of the energy bill as well. Also mentioning here that timing in the carbon prices will be quite important moving forward. But at the same time, I also want to talk a little bit about the capital of where the capital for decarbonization to fund the decarbonization should come from. So talking about prices before I jump into the chart here, currently giving a little bit of overview where the prices are. We're looking at 85 euro per ton currently, and this is not too far away from where it landed last year. So there is no major movement in the carbon prices. However, there is a lot of volatility day to day. So that volatility is something that's going to stay in carbon markets, especially with this policy shift as this proposal goes through the debates, goes through all the voting rounds. We're going to see a lot more volatility coming through. Maybe to give you a few drivers of what impacts the carbon markets currently where we're seeing on one hand, we have industrial output increasing, maybe not for the good reasons, but it's there increasing. At the same time, gas prices are incentivizing a lot more coal to be burned. So that increases emissions. And on the other hand, we also have European Commission introducing more allowances to the market. So increasing the supply either through auctions or through extra free allowances. So there are both bearish and bullish drivers, I would say there, and it's important to keep track of those because it will be quite deterministic in the next few months what the policy will bring. Now moving on to this chart here, I just wanted to put face to face what changed with this July proposal. As you can see there at the beginning of this year, we had a view on the prices until 2035. And that is the green line, the dashed line on top. So that was based basically on the supply and demand, price elasticity, etc. And then when this July proposal came through, the view, the expectations or how the news were digested in the market completely changed how we see the next 10 years in terms of prices. And as you see there, the gap is quite large. And I want to explain a little bit what happened and what has caused that gap. So basically most of it is because the supply is being impacted quite a lot in this news from the European Commission. We have the first one there. There will be much more free allowances because of the benchmark reviews for heat and fuel, but also benchmark reviews that were voted back in June for indirect emissions. And that especially impacts chemicals and refineries. So they will get way more free allowances and that will span until 2030 for sure. Then we have the middle box here. And that will be one of the most important that I want to discuss. European Commission is putting out their decarbonization fund, which will be available to industry through two different phases. The first phase, as we call it, investment booster, will bring a lot more free allowances during the years 28, 2030 at the hands of industrials. And one important thing to mention there is that this will be first come, first served basis. So quite important as we speak through the slides. And then the last one here is more of a market mechanism tool. So market stability reserve in EU ETS is a tool that European Commission has used to be able to control supply and therefore control the prices. At the same time, what we saw with this proposal is that this tool, market stability reserve, will become dormant for a while. So one take supply away from the market and then it will start taking away supply for the market, but much slower than what it was initially predicted at the beginning of the year. So all of this together will bring the case of more supply in the market. And as you see, for the next handful of years, we will see prices being much lower than initially expected. Just a little bit of statistics here. Currently, as we speak at 85 euro per tonne, there was a study done in August with 128 abatement technologies where participants were asked if the carbon price can pay for these technologies. And the answer was that at 85 euro per tonne, only 55 to 60 percent of those can go through. And they don't sit with the industry. They sit with the renewables. They sit with the power, etc. To be able to fund or to be able to make economic three quarters of those abatement technologies, we need prices to be at least 213 euro per tonne, which is very far away from the picture I showed you before in 2035. And to be able to abate it all, we obviously need prices more than 1000. So as you see, there is a big price gap there, I would say. Price on its own, carbon price on its own. And especially with this review, won't be able to incentivize decarbonization as predicted. At the same time, taking into consideration all what was discussed today, there is a lot of gaps in terms of electrification, where electricity prices are right now, in terms of grid capacity, also taking into consideration hydrogen, for example. Green hydrogen will have a price of 4 times gas, and with the current carbon price, or even a 200 carbon price, not even 20 percent of those hydrogen projects can go through. So we have gaps both in terms of carbon prices, we have gaps in terms of electrification. So I wanted to explore a little bit more with you how the European Commission sees this, and how industry is also seeing the current situation. Key point here is what changed with this new conditionality being introduced in the market. As I mentioned, companies have been receiving free allowances in the past, but from 2031, there is conditions on maintaining those free allowances. And you need to have a decarbonization plan, and that needs to be prepared way ahead of time. If you don't have the plan, that you lose all of your free allowances starting from 2031. So very important here to mention. Another important thing to mention is that if, during this phase, you decide to leave EU and move production somewhere else, there is a clawback to that. So you need to pay back the European Commission the value of the free allowances that you have received. Again, another condition here is that 20% of your free allowances past 2031 are also being held for the five years. So you won't receive any of this 20% of the free allowances in the first five years. And only by 2036, I'm taking into consideration the first five year phase. You will need to prove that you are actually executing your plan. You're actually demonstrating that emissions have been reduced to be able to receive that 20% of free allowances. So a lot of conditions there. And what's always, or what's missed currently, is one more condition that makes the case very tied to the carbon markets, that makes European Commission highlight that you are free allowances, you are given free allowances for a reason, and that is to decarbonize. So your decarbonization plan, your capital and operating costs should have a value that should match at least the value of your free allowances. That means that your capital expenditure, your OPEX should be quite very much tied to your free allowance value. And this is sometimes missed. And if it's missed, then you automatically will lose those 20% free allowances. So very important to note here. Another thing I wanted to mention, as this is currently a proposal, so a lot of things are being discussed, and also wanted to align a little bit with what was discussed today. There is a current proposal on pooling your sites together to make your plan work. As we said previously, obviously at the current conditions with great capacity, electricity prices, it's easier for a site that has better possibility to get great capacity or is located at a place where the electricity prices are lower. So with the pooling possibility that the European Commission is giving, you will be able to put all your efforts, all your investment in that site and at the same time secure for the next five years your free allowances. But there is a lot of debate over whether this pooling is beneficial in the longer term. Obviously it is in the short term, but we don't know if that's going to be the case for the longer term. So there is a lot more to change in the policy, I would say, with regards to that, as a lot of parties and industry is speaking about it. Here I also wanted to mention very briefly what's behind your free allocation from 2031 onwards. I'm taking an example of a side case here. We talked about the 80% that you need to secure through a decarbonization plan. We talked about the 20% with two other conditions, the green area on the bars there. But there is more to it. So this is a highlight on how much your free allowances are dependable on the market, on the policy, starting from 2031 onwards. So the darker grey area, I would say, on the bars that is related to CBAM, probably most of you know the products that are already part of the CBAM scope, they will start to lose free allowances starting from 2026, and that will narrow down as we move along. Although the plan for that takes a while, it's still quite impactful as we go through the years. And then a lot more products are expected to be part of CBAM scope from 2028, 2030. So that is a massive cut, I would say, already in the free allowances. One thing that is often missed is the cross correctional factor that is part of EU ETS mechanism. So to be able to meet the targets, to be able to reduce the cap, the European Commission reduces the free allowances that it hands to industry with this cross correctional factor. And that is the lighter grey area on the bars as you see there. And while this is not accounted for in most of the industries, in most of the companies out there, this is a major reason that will really determine how much value you are getting from your free allowances as the year it passes. So something very important to note. One natural question that will come, I'm talking here about the proposal, so will this going to happen really? I would say a few things here. Some things are already in place. So we have benchmarks in place, benchmark reviews. We have the CBAM phase out, CBAM phase in and free allowance phase out. So there are some things already there. There are some things that are already being debated. Countries are pro or against the current proposal. But what's most important, I wanted to put to you face to face on where would you be at if you don't do anything in this situation and where you'd be at if you start doing something. So if you start doing something and this plan, this proposal doesn't materialize, what you're facing is the cost of your feasibility studies. And then on the other hand, if you do not do anything, what you're losing or what you're missing here is a lot more than that. So that is the loss of all your free allocation from 2031, which would be a caveat, which would be a help for your decarbonization or would be a help for your carbon bill. So worth pointing those or worth comparing those when dealing with the carbon markets. Last thing I want to talk about is money. So for the industry to decarbonize in EU ETS, there is a need of 300 to 400 billion. What I talked about, sorry about that, conditionality, that's 140 billion lost if companies do not work on their decarbonization plan. So portion of this 300 to 400 will be funded by this 140 billion that comes from the free allowances that are conditional after 2031. And then what's most important here is that the European Commission is providing funding worth 130 billion through the industrial decarbonization bank, as I mentioned, through the current programs as well, just like innovation fund, et cetera. So more than half can be already funded through the free allowances and through the public pockets funding in the EU level. What's also important to note here is that all this funding I'm talking about, including the free allowances, they are all OPEC support. So while to invest in carbonization you need to spend money, you need to spend capex, all of these are not supporting you at the initial phase of decarbonization. So there is a large gap to that. And it's very important to note, as this is the period where industry is giving their opinions to European Commission. So this is an opportunity to highlight that probably the OPEX being provided won't be helpful for a company to take a decision on decarbonization. However, there is a slight opportunity there, and that opportunity lies on the local level. As we stand right now, all of the country's member states are receiving free allowances, are receiving revenue from the allowances that are being auctioned. And the idea is that the revenue from those should be used in climate, and currently 50% are used on priority uses, so industry, aviation, maritime, grids, etc. But as it currently stays, only 5% of that is used for industry. That's why this is the moment where we really need to look into increasing that portion. And there is a current proposal by European Parliament to bring that up to 20 to 30%. So that will be your only capex funding possibility, and that's why I really wanted to highlight here. Being cautious of the time, I'll leave you with the slides. When you receive them, just a little bit more notes on the timelines and where we are getting, especially the slides, we'll bring out there that for the first funding opportunity there is no time. So you should already be prepared, otherwise you won't be able to get any money from this first pocket. And then a few notes on where companies stand and how they are prepared in this phase. Probably just to take away, to finalize, despite all the shifts, despite all the uncertainties, one thing that the European Commission is always mentioning is that EU ETS is there to stay. So this is a good indicator that some efforts should be taken. But at the same time, what I want to say is that it's not all about strategy or procurement strategy. It's much more than that. You really need to be able to put out there or map out there your cash flow every single year, incorporating all this information on the conditionality, on the benchmarks, on the CBAM scope, how the emissions will be reduced using different decarbonization scenarios, and calculate those MVVs to make your case, because otherwise you'll be lost in the complexity of this policy. So it's a time to look deeper into the nitty-gritty details of this proposal and what it brings for industry. Thank you. Thank you very much. For sure, the price expectations that you present here now for the next years, you covered a bit on the volatility side as well. Can you say something about who can actually impact the volatility? Can we see more speculators coming in who can drive prices to another level? Yeah, definitely. So speculators have always been there, so we do see that a lot. We have seen it quite often in the past few years as carbon markets have been quite very much coupled with the gas prices, and there's basically same traders into the market. What I would expect more, bringing volatility is policy currently, not as much speculation. Speculation basically reacts based on what policies or how they interpret policy, and this is what we saw after the July 17th. There was a lot of movement because this trader interpreted the legislation this way and that way. But I would say what will bring more volatility is industrials finding their way in the carbon markets, because so far a majority hasn't been exposed. So their hedging strategies will definitely bring that volatility in the next few years. Yeah, very good. Nathan? And then Vincent. Yeah, you touched on it a little bit earlier, but the prices lower initially, well into the 2030s. On the one hand, this seems to be well below the kinds of prices needed to incentivize decarbonization technologies in industry. So does this mean that the gap to invest in cleaner tech for industry needs to be met with more subsidies in the near term, and do you see sufficient subsidies available to them in order to create this transition? Or is the path for decarbonization for industry just to close down and move away? Yeah, great question. So interpreting the current proposal by the European Commission, that seems to be the way. So providing more funding support in the next couple of years will help close that gap. Obviously there are constraints, but just to quote from the impact assessment from the European Commission, they also expect industrials to raise money through the funding to build those grid connections as well. So, yeah, the reliance should be on the funding, but definitely there is a long way to go. So price is not the only thing. So this is a view on the market as the proposal is currently being digested. I would not say this is the final view. The final view would be there when the industrials go in and do their homework and really understand year to year what losing those free allowances mean for them. And once they jump in with a strategy, then definitely that might have more impact into the market. And probably price might be a driver at some point as well. Very good, Vincent. Thank you for the presentation. I had actually a bit you answered a bit partially my question. But so on screen we see a proposal now. And what I'm interested in as well is expect that we go through the European Commission or negotiation process. What are your expectations in terms of member states fighting each other? Or what are the sensitivities in the proposal that can change? Yeah. I would say that currently looking at the answers of different member states, I would say it's more balanced. So we have some protectors of the proposal and we have some that want to smoothen it down a little bit more. Just today, a couple hours ago, there was a news on the MSR that I explained being a bit more smoother on the market. So I would say it might be watered down a little bit or it might bring a little bit more clarity on how the funding will work. But other than that, I would expect most of the things to stay, the funding, the cap, and how it's supposed to incentivize industry. Very good. Final question from the floor. I have a very specific question on CBAM. I understand that the free allocation is taken into consideration in your forecast. Do you also take into account the fact that there are newcomers to the EU ETS, mainly the CBAM players looking to hedge their CBAM costs with EUA? Do you see that in your forecast or is it excluded at the moment? No, definitely that's part of the forecast. But I would say that's more of a short-term strategy. So because of the conditions on the CBAM certificates, that strategy needs to be rolled over every year. So yeah, it's part of the forecast definitely. Very good, I guess. In the interest of time, we are so sorry that we need to close there for you. We have a present to you as well. Thank you very much. So thank you very much, Egler Bersani. Well, last presentation of the day.