Where flexibility pays: BESS, ancillary services and the Finnish markets that matter

Yes, so this is the first presentation by Priyanka, who will talk about where flexibility pays, which I just basically mentioned about. So to give you an overview of the topics, so we will talk about answering service and markets, and also when we talk about flexibility, I think it's quite important to talk about also volatility because that is what makes flexibility also worth it. So this is where you can actually make money out of your flexibility. So we will talk about that, and because I'm standing very close to a speaker, I can hear myself, so that's a bit not ideal. I just don't want to hide your view. Okay, I think I can stand a bit in between then. Hopefully you can still see the slides. So you can see here, that's easier. So yeah, so that is the overview. Where the market is headed, we will talk about that. So when it comes to BESS, right, which volatility is very important for us, but then are we still talking about the answering services? Is the situation still the same? Or are we seeing a shift in the market, in the trading strategies? If yes, where is that shift? Where are we going? That will be the important topic that we will look at. And I think we all who are working on the Nordic market are very well aware of almost the big bang that we had in the Nordic balancing market last year, almost a year ago now, so a little bit more in March. So we will talk a little bit about that. What has that brought to the market? What has exactly happened? And when you know that things are going to be volatile, what can we do about it? How can we capitalize on that? So I will also talk a bit on these things. So this is how the short-term market timeline can more or less look like. Balancing capacity markets are usually what we start with in the beginning, before the day head market, or around the day head market, depends on which of the ancillary service we are talking about. So the gate closures can be on different times. But after that, we have the day head market, continuous intraday market, and auctions. More focus on this talk will be on continuous intraday markets. Then the balancing energy markets, which are very much connected to the capacity markets in the balancing side. So ancillary service market. So I will use these terms pretty much analogously. Then we have the real-time delivery. So this is more or less the timeline of the short-term markets. Today's presentation is more focused on a bit on balancing capacity markets, intraday markets, and balancing energy markets. So these are three things, the main focus of the talk today. While we go there, it's also important to talk about the context. So what is it that we are focusing on in terms of the developments? Because where are we today is also because of what has happened in the markets. So what have the different stakeholders, how have they been affected? It's because of the developments from the TSO side, from the market operator side. So joint initiatives that they have taken in the markets have resulted in the situation that we are in today. So let's go a little bit back, almost actually two years ago, when Finnish TSO, Fingrit started the local AFR energy market in Finland. So Finland was the first one to launch this market. It did not exist in Nordics before. So this was their strategy to first at least start to price the AFR energy, right? So back in the days, we didn't have this kind of a market. And Picasso is actually an extension of this. But local AFR energy market was even like the first step to just get there. So Fingrit did this in two steps, starting with a local market and then going into Picasso later. But the Danish TSO, Energginet, so they directly went in October 2024, the same year, directly to Picasso. But then it's very risky because if you are starting to join a pan-European market of AFR energy from your own local end, which is not very mature yet, you can invite a lot of volatility and that is exactly what happened. So Denmark consistently had very high or very low, like very extreme prices on both the sides, positive and negative. Then the Danish TSO started to shield the market participants for several months until March 2025 from these very extreme prices. So they were not reflected in the imbalance prices yet. So they were taking this on themselves. But then when we changed a lot of things in the MFR energy market, that's when the TSO also started to count this in. So they were like, okay, now let's go all in. Now that the prices are anyway so bad, let's also start to reflect this. It's not entirely true. I mean, of course, the market also had several months to mature by then. So from October till March. So you almost gave like six months for the market. So that was also actually helping out with this, right? So that was one thing. Then we had flow-based market coupling go-life, which was actually in the day ahead market. It impacted also the way we calculate the intraday capacities, but it also impacted what we see in the balancing market. So this was already in October 2024. But after that, in March, we had this MFRAR EM, the automated MFRAR clearing go-live, manual frequency restoration reserve, go-live, right? So that was the main thing. After that, we have seen a lot of changes in the balancing markets and it has been very much connected. So you can ask a good question. So why was it not a problem from October when flow-based market coupling already went live? It is because of what we did actually in March. So that's when these changes actually started reflecting on the capacities that accounted for calculating the cross-border exchanges and the imbalance prices ultimately. So it was, that is something I will talk about a bit more later. But this correlation is very important to understand when we're talking about the market developments. And just after that, we started seeing 15 minutes market resolution for intraday and also the balancing market prices. So that's also the time when, for the first time in Nordics, we were able to trade cross-border continuous intraday products at 15-minute resolutions. So it has opened up the opportunities for more sharing of volumes across the border also with the rest of Europe because they have been trading 15-minute products for quite some time. And now we see many examples when Finland, for example, trades with Germany or with Austria on those 15-minute products. So this was not possible before because we were only trading one-hour products. afterwards, Finland also joined Picasso. So it was like almost the first step and towards the end, we see in two different steps Finland has now Picasso also connected. Luckily, the situation was not very extreme with the balancing markets, but I will talk a little bit more about Picasso and Finland a bit later. And then finally, the day-ahead market 15-minute shift, which completed the whole cycle almost because now we, then, since then, we have day-ahead market intraday and also balancing at 15-minute resolution. So this is all the timeline. The reason I'm showing this to you is because we will refer to this every now and then in the presentation. So this is almost like a cheat sheet. So try to remember this developments. So now, coming to the fundamental question, we have been seeing, so this is just a collection of data for almost two years now. And that is the end where we are currently in June. So what have we seen? Some of the important shifts that we have seen is that the spot prices, that means the day-ahead market prices, have lifted up. So we have had quite high prices this year. But when I talk about prices, I will also talk about something else which Finland is very popular for. So wait for that. But in general, what we have also seen this year compared to, for example, last year the demand was higher. This is the demand where we see it to peak during winter. And even though nuclear was going pretty okay, but there was, of course, times when we did not have so much wind. and then it was a lot of other things that had to step in. For example, expensive imports. We saw some, let's say, relying more on gas, biomass, and peat, so other type of generation which was also needed in the fuel mix to satisfy the very high demand. So this is also one thing that we have seen. And the pattern, even like the volatility, is actually a lot of, like the factor of what kind of demand do you have and what kind of wind supply do we have at a given point of time. So now towards spring we start to see a bit of solar and other things, but in general, and a little bit of decline actually in the nuclear for these months. But the demand has also declined quite a lot. But coming back to the topic of prices which I said, I will refer to and what Finland is very popular for is the negative prices. Because in the past years Finland was known for being on the top spot for having the most number of hours with negative prices. So this is no longer the case. So if we compare the situation, so this is the situation of this year versus the last year exactly the same time. So up to that if we just count the total hours that we have seen negative prices, for this year it's just 27. Last year and up till this time we already exceeded like 250. So the comparison is almost like quite crazy I would say. And it's pretty much similar. So the darker the shade is the more the number of the count. And here you can see SC2 for example also has a big decline. but on the other hand if you look at the south of Europe so Spain is already exceeding its count by much more this year compared to last year. And in several central western European countries we still see pretty high count. Many reasons to that. We will talk a little bit about some of the reasons why this is no longer the case but it also has a lot to do with the fundamentals the fuel mix where we actually started from. So this is a good outlook of what is the demand what is the supply we have of course deficit on the hydro side this year the demand has been higher and other structural changes which we also see in terms of the transmission capacities good connection to the Baltics and so on. So several reasons which are leading to this but one of the important things which I wanted to highlight here is the price sensitive curtailment because do you think that the wind farms maybe some of you are operating those would they keep on doing the same mistakes they were doing in the previous years? Maybe not and that's exactly what we are seeing today because it's important to learn from mistakes not necessarily of your own it could also be of other mistakes but it's important to learn from that so you can't keep on operating at negative prices and this is also one of the reasons that we are seeing that the producers are actually reacting to the prices now so it's much more responsiveness that we are looking at and this actually complicates the situation for us I mean it's good for the market definitely but what do we do in terms of the market right? In terms of the forecast so it is very clear from here so there are two plots one of them is the price plot the day head price and the second chart is actually the forecast so there are two things right? So one is what does the fundamental tell you if you purely look at the wind speed wind direction etc it will tell you one story but it's not the complete story because you will most likely get your forecast wrong if you have not accounted for the price inputs what role does the day head price play because if several wind farms are actually curtailing as a result of response to the prices then your forecasts are going to be wrong so this is exactly what we are seeing the red patch that I have drawn here so you can see the green is actually the solid green is the real generation and you see a sudden drop here and then a sudden rise so these are exactly happening when the prices drop to zero or negative so one could easily miss this if you have not considered the price responsiveness towards this so this is why forecasting today is a different game altogether and not just dependent anymore on purely fundamentals so this is very clear also from this I mean it's the same example with some more data here so for example you can see these are exchanges of SE3 and Finland so you can see normally in the morning hours and in the evening hours so Finland was supposed to export to SE3 but it actually started importing at some of these hours when a lot of countries also the neighboring countries went pretty negative because through that through the market coupling when for example in CWE we have a lot of solar generation in the afternoon hours that's exactly when you would see the flows to reverse and that's exactly also when in Finland producers don't want to produce anymore because some other producers are doing that job for them so all you can do is just import the cheap or the negative prices and cheap supply instead of producing it yourself so this is pretty much completing the story of what's happening in terms of who is generating and what are the prices so this is already one thing which we are seeing and which can partly explain why we saw the decline in negative prices we are also starting to see other demand side flexibility playing a role so we are able to track the data so this is almost from January 2024 till today so e-boilers are also playing a big role where we can clearly see so the maximum consumption today has almost reached above 1000 megawatt hour if we plot this together with the finish day ahead so the spot prices you can clearly see the correlation the price responsiveness when you can see the consumption to spike so the green chart is the day ahead prices and the blue is the consumption of e-boilers so on the lower day ahead prices those hours you can see the consumption to spike pretty rapidly so the pattern is very clear and the other way around also of course weather pattern has a role to play because we are talking about e-boilers but the prices are also very important which we are starting to look at and it's very good that we can have such granular data to track these we are also trying to look at and track the best behavior because that's also of course one of the topics to look at so today as of June 2026 the installed battery capacity is almost reached like 1.6 gigawatt and of course they are in many different markets here we are just showing some quick charts of what kind of charging and discharging pattern are we seeing compared to the day ahead prices so what kind of correlation do you have because of course the batteries are available in many different markets but these are two different charts so one is from all the data that we have had since almost like 8 sorry 10 months almost or so so far we have just drawn the average hour of the day like behavior with the spot price which is the green curve on the upper chart and the orange and the blue are basically the discharging and charging plots so you can see how it is connected of course it's not going to be always that you maybe you know discharge a lot at very high prices you do that but then there are also other factors to play in terms of the correlation with the day ahead prices we saw the discharging correlation to be much more consistent and clear but the charging part is actually very interesting because there we have seen the pattern to change in just in the past 8 to 10 months the pattern is actually reversing which means you're going towards negative correlation so that is showing you as that for the charging now you actually start to look more at the spot prices so this is already one important change changing in the behavior which we are able to track because if you don't respect this at all which is maybe in this category so you're just looking a lot more at your SOC constraints state of charge constraints and operational scheduling constraints but when you go enter this territory that means you really start caring a lot about prices and the correlation is only getting stronger I mean the negative correlation so this is the R value which by June 2026 it's quite a strong pattern that we are observing on top of that now that we're already talking about bears so it's of course interesting to track to see what are the kind of spreads that we are looking at in day head market and now the situation is changing this was based on 2025 of course so it's important to ask what kind of maximum spread can I have the second question to ask is how often can I have it what is the percentage of time I will be able to have this kind of spread so Finland is somewhere here and you can compare also the rest of Nordic countries we also have other European countries over there so Baltics are somewhere there for 2025 at least it looked quite strong Hungary Poland for example was also pretty good Greece for example at the top Romania so Eastern European countries so then we dig a little bit more deeper what takes it to be at that value and how often will you get it so if you look at the fuel mix if we try to put some context to this we observe that the number of days when you have much more of a mix and switching of fuel from fossil dominated to non fossil fuel dominated those are the days when you can actually have pretty good spreads because your fuel mix is switching in between the two so these were like some of the key insights that we could derive when we dig a little bit more into it so if you have something like this in the fuel mix then it actually helps and of course there is a role of like what other type of assets other flexibility have you got so Norway for example has a lot of hydro and then you might not have as much of a spread as a result of it and neighbors can also have a huge influence on this but then while we're talking about the battery so one thing was to look at the spot prices but then it's also good to put a bit of more perspective to the other markets that you can look at so this is coming from ancillary service markets and what do the flexibility in the system like indicate about it so the different timelines so as I mentioned already before so before the day head market on D minus one you would have MFRR and AFR market clearing but the FCR and FFR are cleared afterwards so that means you already have information on the day head market prices and also where else have your battery or assets been committed to so based on that you can take the decisions and this is for of course the hourly auctions because your yearly auctions is also another thing in Finland right so that's a thing to look at and these are the result timings so that's when you already get the output so the bidding closure is a different story so I've just shown the result timing here but based on this information we can see what are the markets I want to go into and the trends that we are seeing in Finland for example is a lot more shift towards the hourly markets so back in the days we used to see more volumes being committed into or not more but at least there was more interest into those yearly auctions the prices are stable so you kind of have a bit of a stable revenue stream but now the shift is more towards also to look at the volatility look at the fundamentals and take more risks because if you are lucky you might actually get pretty good prices also these are of course the average prices which don't capture the full story because if you are there at a certain price spike it is of course very interesting so we are also starting to see this shift so I have only plotted the average volumes for the hourly auctions which have been procured and year after year you can see so 2024 2025 2026 so three years 2026 is the orange curve you can already see the volumes to be pretty high this year for all these markets and the prices on the other hand are declining so the orange curve is actually the lowest of all today so the market is trying to almost like converge to pretty low prices I would say and that is the trend for FCRD up and down but the trend also in a way continues to FCRN market so batteries have started to play a role of course like for the past two three years in this but you can clearly see that the development has been much more on terms of yeah the average volumes being procured much more in the hourly auction in FCRN and the prices are still like on the orange curve pretty low compared to the previous years what you could get out of this so we are seeing increasing number of players but that is one thing the second important thing which I would like to talk about is after FCR is the AF RARA capacity market because I mentioned that the timeline that I showed will be important and the reason for that is that at for the AF RARA capacity market we operate a Nordic level clearing of this so we share resources which basically means the reason to show you this timeline again is that I I just mentioned that both Finland and Denmark has Picasso AF RARA energy markets but Sweden and Norway does not have but the capacity market to that so the connection to the AF RARA energy and the capacity market comes into play here because as a result of this lacking opportunity for players in Sweden and Norway you do see that this is clearly a benefit for Finland and Denmark and the next slide will make it more clear so and some more slides actually so this introduction of AF RARA energy market brings more volumes and this was very clear when we started to see that the players can go to the capacity market if they get committed there then they have another market to go and code the price they want to in the AF RARA energy market so that they get paid according to the price they want to get paid for but the players in Sweden for example don't have this and as a result of it they basically lose the chance to go to an AF RARA energy market which basically means if you are cleared in the capacity market which is operating at the Nordic level now your competitor actually has this extra market but you don't have that extra market so you are only activated in the energy market proportional to your capacity and you will get paid according to the imbalance price now the imbalance price is actually determined in Sweden and Norway purely by the MFR RARA because they don't have an AF RARA energy market at all so it's kind of putting them at a disadvantage and that is also the reason why we have seen decline in the capacities being procured from Sweden for example so the top chart is for Denmark again in Denmark we saw the same trend so this is actually the chart for DK2 so that's also another note DK2 is the only bidding zone which is in this of Denmark which is in this common AF RARA Nordic capacity market because it's part of the Nordic synchronous area but DK1 is part of central synchronous area so central European so it's not part of this Nordic capacity market but even the small DK2 area you can see the volumes to be quite high and this is exactly the shift so it was not giving any volumes at all until Picasso was launched the moment Picasso was launched you can see the volume supply on both the sides and on the other hand what has happened in Sweden for example because the total market is the same more or less so you have about the same volumes that are needed so if the volumes are coming from somewhere else more competitive bids actually so the other players who players who don't have this opportunity will lose so this is what has happened so you see much lesser volumes being procured from Sweden so this is just an example of SE2 which was contributing a lot before but after these kind of opportunities have been launched for the competitors they don't see more volumes coming in from the previous original players anymore I mean this is also very clear from these two charts on the upward and downward side so the volumes that are procured some average monthly volumes for the past two years almost you can see Finland and DK2 almost leading in both the sides and the volumes have only started to get better with more market opportunities that have come in and on the other hand Sweden and Norway are a a little bit like declining so the question also will be if when Picasso is launched in our in the neighboring zones and countries what impact will that have because then maybe they will have more level playing field or such but again it's not very simple it's of course much more nuanced but it's definitely a food for thought trends in the MFRA capacity market so we have a trilateral capacity market for Finland Sweden and Denmark and what are we seeing here so here you can of course say that where the MFRA energy market actually exists for all of these three countries which is true but who is able to provide these volumes is different in different countries so because of the market developments from the fundamental side that we are seeing there is also a bit of a shift that we are observing so because now you're able to connect the MFRA I mean the capacity to the energy markets you can also see that there was a time last year actually when the energy market was pretty chaotic and volatile the capacity markets were I mean also kind of reflecting this so you can see the prices were quite good let's see if this will work yeah so in this zone uh the prices were actually pretty volatile also for Finland a capacity market market MFRA capacity market now they have started to decline because a lot of players have understood this opportunity and much more are coming in and that has actually also been reflected in the trilateral capacity market so in terms of the volumes um you can see here very clearly that Finland has because of a lot of players that have started to see this market interesting um many of them have entered the market so both on up and down side Finland is already actually starting to dominate the the market share quite a lot for even of out of this trilateral capacity market so alongside on the upward side it's uh together with se3dk Finland is also a dominant player on the downward side Finland is also very cost competitive so again it's about who is able to provide these volumes right so you can see uh a lot of contributions from Finland and it's actually yeah just growing which is uh something to to remember so this also means that the prices are declining and this also means if you want to stay competent in the market you also want to explore other strategies right so that is what uh we are going to talk about uh in the next part which is going to be more about balancing markets so here i will again uh refer to the shift that has happened uh last year uh in march with the with the big bang that i referred to almost um so you can see here for example before that things were relatively stable even though flow based market coupling was already launched in october 2024 right so this was relatively stable and then you start to see something crazy has happened um which was actually impacting the imbalance prices in all these countries some tso's going and correcting them some said we are not going to correct them we are not going to change it is what it is except the reality the problem is when you have cross-border trades um somebody gets a price of minus 10 000 and some other tso says no no it's going to be only minus 500 for our our bidding zone um so that's when things get not so good um in terms of the prices that was the story activations also very high so a lot more focused oops a lot more focus has now been uh shown on the activations of local uh uh capacities so you can see for example these reserves um compared to the same period in 2024 in 2025 the volumes so for finland for example has been pretty high both on the downward and upward side so and that's actually the case for most of the country so if you see for denmark which is relatively much smaller bidding zones they also have to activate much more on both the sides so while this is happening what we also see that because we are of course trading a lot more lot also cross-border and when i say trading cross-border we are we're doing this in intraday markets for example so imbalanced prices are very important for you to to know the expectations of those to be able to decide your intraday strategies right but on the other hand what we've seen so the first heat map is actually from uh kind of from 2024 but the second one is from 2025 after the shift and you can see that the price correlations of the imbalanced prices of the 12th bidding zone has declined drastically so the bluer the shade is the less correlated they are which is actually quite revealing because back in the days we used to have such higher relatively much higher correlation uh for most of the bidding zones but now we are starting to get into a different price regime altogether for imbalanced prices in nordics and the question actually is um so what is it that is you know playing a role is it the way we solve the mf rara market is it the way we calculate the imbalance prices has the imbalance uh price also been impacted by picasso so some countries have this some don't which is actually a good question so it's actually a combination of all of them um and that also brings us to the topic of so how does the cross-border trade actually happen are we able to track this can we say anything more from that and the answer to that is yes we are able to actually track so purely for mf rar um exchanges from finland to sweden so se3 and se1 um what kind of volumes are exchanged because this will also have an impact on if i didn't expect se1 to be long but suddenly uh finland had a lot of excess of energy and it thought of dumping that power into um into sweden se1 so this is what can happen that uh you do see this power being exported to uh se1 so this is what is happening so the red dotted line is actually the requirement in finland the solid red is the only one which is activated internally and for if cost efficiency reasons everything else is actually exported to to sweden so this is what is happening that's why it's important to track what kind of exchanges are happening in the mfrr or market to be able to get this answers to uh so how much activations do we see locally and what will be actually uh exchanged internationally through through sweden and this is the answer to that so both on the upward and downward side we are seeing pretty high dependencies of um uh swedish volumes like uh for for finland so particularly on the downward side you can see um after order align came into effect we could see much more exchanges that were made possible so you can see the local actually coverage has been relatively lower and a lot more has been through through the swedish um reserves that have been activated so this is also important for finland but also for the swedish players who are active in that region to understand where are these uh volumes coming from because it's not fully explained by their own fundamentals uh but it's also coming from external reasons right so that is one thing now the question uh is going to be also about like what has really changed and uh what are we going to look at now so this is something i've briefly uh mentioned so when we were talking about these type of prizes um of course like some tso's didn't like these extreme prizes so 18th may for example uh 2025 was one of the cases when uh both finland and uh some swedish zones actually had the same minus 10 000 price um finland didn't correct it but swedish tso ended up correcting it so we don't see that anymore uh over here um so these are some examples of what can happen when you're trading cross border but the tso's have different methodologies to tackle the same situation and then it can become a problem for you who are active in in the market but the good thing is that the tso's have learned that this is not a good thing to do and the market was also sending feedback so luckily we are not in such a bad situation hopefully anymore because uh a lot of changes have then been made to the mfrr algorithm so we are not going to be in such uh hopefully difficult situation anymore um so slowly there have been changes so the first one uh was by energy net actually already last year in june to and like um start having a 25 megawatt band it's like a dead band so that was more for having more number of hours with no dominating direction so that your imbalance price can be equal to the dayhead price because those type of normal situations we were not seeing anymore we were having much more volatile imbalance prices so they started with that kind of a basic arrangement and the idea was that hey come on the forecast because tso's are activating these reserves based on their forecasts of the system and the forecast can also be wrong so let's not punish the market for our mistakes of not having a good forecast you know so this was the first thing they started with and then other tso said okay good idea let us also try to do something like that maybe not exactly the same we will do our own novel approach so the swedish tso started uh doing some sort of a uh tolerance ban so they said our forecast can also be wrong but we are not going to put that dead band around zero but we we will put that for our volumes uh to just accept a little bit larger volume than uh or less so smaller or larger volumes not be very strict on the volumes that we activate so that we can reduce the number of paradoxically rejected bids um so their idea was a lot of bid jumping that can happen in the market so we shouldn't do that that's why they started with something like this and they applied that slowly to both direct and local i mean which are direct and scheduled activations to both cross-border and local activations um along with that they also started to send smaller bids um than what they see so they reduce the size of the bids so that you don't have too much activations um these are also the kind of things that the tso started to do fingrid did something different so i will talk a little bit more about that in the next slide so what fingrid did was um and they did it actually a little bit later in in november um which was at plus minus 50 megawatt dead band so they said we will only consider a change in the demand to be a real change if your uh difference between the previous and the next demand is going to be more than 50 megawatt on the above end or the lower side so that was their way to tackle this i mean one of the things that they that the tso came up with so everybody had a novel novel approach uh different tso's different things but together they also did something more um to eradicate these issues of having illogical like price spreads and delays and imbalanced prices if you are active in the market you might have known that a lot of times we were seeing many gaps in the data publication so those have also been now almost uh removed or resolved um so this this was done by all the nordic tso's together and now they're also experimenting with some more flexible um approaches to bring more elastic demand kind of thing so it's kind of a price gap but not really um so that kind of a temporary thing uh to tackle these kind of situations so that was the situation with mfrr energy market which is already very important but when it comes to finland uh this is just one part of the story we have another part which is also very uh important in setting the imbalance price which is picasso and that this uh is of course a pan-european afr energy market um situation uh market so what is the situation here today uh we have all these uh 18 countries that are participating in the picasso project which is a tso tso uh market and they are basically compiling all the bids that are available and uh finland was already there in march actually so um this basically means that we are looking at merit order curves of afr energy market like this so these are all the different markets so some some of them you can see have very little volumes uh but the prices can go quite extreme very quickly but some of them have a lot of volumes to uh to allow for the market uh at the prices go very extreme only at the end um so finland is luckily not there uh but it's not even there so it's much more moderate prices and the the question then is of course uh what kind of um interconnection do we have because the story of uh cross-border projects of course uh starts here but it continues further on what do you have to offer but also whom are you connected with if you're connected with somebody who is like this for example for very small volumes you get very extreme then it could be a problem and uh so on so the the thing directly for finland is being connected to picasso through baltics so that's why i thought of looking at the correlation of of what baltics uh can do to the finish uh picasso prizes um now because if you talk about baltics it's disconnected to to poland and poland can be connected to czech republic so you can go to those extreme prices through that connection right which has rarely happened so that's a good news but of course the question is uh what kind of range trading range are we expecting for the picasso prizes in uh in finland um and the the good news is that finnish prices have been much more moderate so the uh connection of the prices between baltics and finland has not been so sharp or extreme so both on the upward and downward sides you can see the baltic prices which are on the y-axis right so they can go of course much more extreme uh this is downward side right so you can see this range to be operational much more but finnish prices are much more controlled um there are times when okay you can go into this territory but it's rare so more likely you are being operated in this range so it's not a big big issue but it's also something to keep up on observing if for example there are more capacities released for picasso this could be something to look out for and that's why you can uh observe like the hub to hub capacities which i will show you in the next chart so this is uh important to track uh because this is just an example of what uh hub to hub hub capacities which you can track uh pretty close to the real time can do and why these are important to to track for these type of balancing market questions so this is an example of uh what happened when some of the nordic uh yeah so it's a little bit light on this chart which i don't know why but anyways now you just have to believe me and believe the text that it's going to be a very high price spike for our neighbors but finland actually had actually on the other hand negative price um so minus 128 so where did this come from uh picasso had a role to play here because this is the chart which i would have loved to show you a little bit bigger version of it but this is the only one that i have here so again here the the important thing was to look at the dominant direction um in the balancing market based on that you get to know if picasso will play a role in setting your imbalance price or not in this case actually it did so afrr was also activating downwards which was aligning with the dominant direction which is also minus one so in that case um the lowest of the two will set the imbalance price and it was minus 128 from picasso so that was actually setting the imbalance price so that's actually the one i have shown here so this is coming from here you can see so it's a four second market right so we're able to track all these prices and see that it is actually reaching in this territory which is quite negative and that is exactly what is reflected here so of course it's it's going to be the vwap of that volume weighted average price of um those uh all these four second clearing markets so you'll have to look at that but these are also the price by volume class a kind of curves time series curves that we track based on these um bids that are submitted in the market and then you can see that there was quite limited volumes on the downward side um which actually led to these negative prices also in the imbalance prices so the intraday was already reflecting this uh downward trend and there was no almost no export capacities remaining right so that's when you are you can get isolated isolated and these negative prices can become like more extreme because then you are hitting this kind of uh end of your merit order curve and there is no more like ways to help you out of this excess energy that you're locked in so this is what actually happened here uh which is also so this particular formula of imbalance price setting is uh something we only started to see uh from uh the time afr energy market was launched in finland so before that it was much more easier we didn't have to care about all of this it was very uh simple just with mfr our energy market so now we have much more difficult job to know when this where this price is coming from so we provide these type of analytics services for that now when it comes to balancing market forecast okay yes so we are running a bit short on time so i will go through this uh hopefully quickly when it comes to balancing market forecast right so it can help you with intraday strategies and the reason for explaining this also now at this point is because we are starting to see the market to shift in this direction much more than it was before because of all the things we discussed discussed so far um so we'll show you some examples when um the forecasts were actually very important to to understand where the market was going another example of negative price um from uh actually in the early morning hours around seven eight o'clock when you may not expect the market to be long because that's of course the time when the demand is peaking and so on um but the uh imbalance price actually went uh quite low and we were able to show that the market is going to be um long and again the story for this comes from picasso because the picasso price price so there was full activation of afrara downwards um and the picasso price was setting the imbalance price so that is what we can see here um there were only limited export capacities remaining so you are kind of entering this territory where uh there is going to be downward activation uh full resources are activated and and there are pretty uh mild intraday prices so if you knew this information before and didn't enter the uh real time with a long position you could have shielded yourself from this very low negative prices of the imbalanced prices and just close your position at the intraday which was actually relatively much more milder um so this is um kind of an example where the forecasts of balancing markets that can actually help you in your intraday strategies another example again here uh the other way around actually when the market was short and uh we had already forecasted that and the imbalance prices went actually quite high in finland so that was another case when uh we were able to show this and the intraday prices on the other hand were much more milder so in the intraday if you're able to close your position um already before uh knowing that the imbalance prices can go quite high so this is actually a blessing almost to uh by looking at the spreads you can know that for sure um and confirm this and similarly the other way around when the prices imbalance prices were going negative we were able to show that this is going to be in surplus and that can help you again on the with the milder intraday prices so these are some examples of just when we're talking about the intraday versus the imbalance prices but also if you're looking at the cross-border opportunities you're already starting to look at so what are the opportunities to have in intraday markets um so there's just one example of the uh quarterly products that are traded now so if you can do something with uh buying cheaper and then just in a few hours actually you can sell it pretty expensive so you can use this uh opportunities to do these kind of cross -border trades so on different locations there were these uh trades happening of uh uh quarterly products from from finland so this is also showing you the very real-time updates of all the trades that are happening here for every delivery product so there are going to be 96 delivery products for one day uh quarterly products and uh 24 hourly products so we're able to track all of these in real time with just a couple of seconds of delay so you can track all of those which also helps you to understand how are the cross-border capacities evolving uh which is very interesting you can further extend this to understand what are the what is the value of cross-border intraday trading so this is just an example of because when you're trading intraday of course you're looking at what kind of opportunities do you have uh versus your competitor has who is in another uh bidding zone because you're trading cross-border so if you want to for example buy from somebody somebody should be ready to sell to you in this example um i was in dk1 and the one whom i was trading with was uh in germany so i had a shortage uh i could see that that means i wanted to close my position um in the intraday market already instead of going to the balancing market because now you're smart you're able to act on the uh balancing market uh forecasts while you look at that you look at my uh counter uh trading partner the in germany who want my counterpart wants to get rid of their surplus if i have this added information of their forecast then i can exploit this to uh determine my price of my order based on this opportunity and that is exactly what brings more value to cross-border intraday trading if you know also um whom are you trading the most with and what kind of situation do they have in terms of their fundamentals and their forecasts so they're also trying to get rid of your excess of their excess so you're trying to get rid of your deficit but they're trying to get rid of their excess so you can use this information cross -border to determine prices which are profitable to you and that is exactly why we have um launched these balancing forecasts which are now available in all of these countries um across different bidding zones and um if you would like to know more about it feel free to contact us um we will be happy to help you so some of the summary is that uh because of the increasing uh competition and supply in the ancillary markets uh we're seeing a downward shift in the prices but also the trading strategies are getting more towards intraday and balancing markets um so we are there to help you with those with uh added market uh foresights and with forecast data uh pretty much real time and also seeing ahead in the future um to take informed decisions so if you would like to know more feel free to contact us um kitos any questions yes my first question is actually on the volumes on price sensitive curtailment did you actually make an estimation on how much let's say wind and solar production was curtailed to the price like price reasons in year 25 in finland i would like to hear a number um yeah i don't have that out of my mind right now but uh we have this estimate estimations actually we track this um on hourly basis so we can compile all of that so the example that i showed you today it was already showing us the curtailment the estimations to exceed even like 1000 megawatt or something which is actually quite a lot um yeah so definitely the volume is quite large but let's let's have a look then later on that sure if i can have a second question then on this you didn't actually then take this to completion this idea that yes we see that the nordic ancillaries are going to the direction that uh let's say finland and denmark too are taking an increasing share but and so you said that it's not because finland installs more batteries or something like that but it's actually because finnish and danish actors have a better incentive to do so i meant it's both it's a combination of several factors so okay so it's briefly mentioned one one would say yeah yeah yeah yeah so but it's yeah several factors actually so it's much more nuanced than yes it's always nice when we have questions hi um anna fenton from energy exemplar um just going off the same theme around the curtailment the economic curtailment um one thing you didn't really mention was whether there might be a role in the sort of market structures around subsidization in the ability of the swedish and finnish price zones to sort of learn more quickly and kind of address the issues of negative pricing do you think there's a role of kind of cfds in some of the other markets that might prop up the negative pricing for a longer period and maybe sweden and finland as unsubsidized markets are more quickly able to respond definitely it definitely has a role to play and that is also explaining um what we see in central europe for example right because there the incentives to not act on it are much more um so that is also the reason what explains why the numbers are still growing and they're quite high for them even today compared to what we see in nordic so this is one one of the things and when it comes to your ability to curtail it also has to do a lot with your technical technical capabilities right so not every wind farm let's say or every solar can do that so it's also about what kind of technology do you use but also other incentives to to do or not do that and i guess then that leads to do you have the incentive to install that sort of technical capacity in the first place to to be able to make sure that your facility can economically curtail yeah that's true and i mean a lot of these investment decisions are taken like so much ahead in the future so not everybody has that foresight but i think i'm pretty pretty sure that in the past few years people have started to talk about it already so the ones that we are going to see now and we have seen already have these and the ones that don't they're actually trying to ramp up their capabilities to try to do this because it's needed thanks yes any other questions for priyanka if not a warm round of applause for priyanka please