Montel no-reply@webinar.montel.energy https://video.montel.energy en-us Visualplatform http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Montel episodic no https://video.montel.energy/files/rv4.427/sitelogo.gif https://video.montel.energy http://video.montel.energy/uk-weather-risk-power-system-stress <p><p>Weather risk affects electricity demand, renewable output and the margins available to system operators. Rob Hutchinson, Commercial Team Lead for Energy & Utilities at Meteomatics, explains why broad seasonal forecasts and local generation forecasts answer different questions for the UK power market.</p> <p>Recorded at Montel's UK Energy Day 2026 at the QEII Centre in London on 10 November 2026, this presentation was titled ‘Under climate pressure: system stress and the forecast gap’. Hutchinson connects recent heat and electricity-system pressures with the practical challenge of forecasting renewable generation.</p> <h2>What this session covers</h2><ul><li><strong>Heat and system margins:</strong> how weather-driven demand and generation changes can combine to produce difficult operating conditions outside winter.</li><li><strong>A Suffolk offshore-wind case study:</strong> how a localised squall and the following lull affected output, and why model resolution and refresh frequency matter.</li><li><strong>Winter uncertainty:</strong> the competing signals from El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warming and sea-surface temperatures.</li><li><strong>Dunkelflaute and concentrated capacity:</strong> why cold, low-wind periods and clusters of offshore wind farms can create correlated operational risks.</li></ul><p>Hutchinson describes the winter outlook as low confidence. A seasonal tendency towards milder conditions does not rule out shorter cold, low-wind spells, while a stratospheric warming event does not guarantee cold weather. In the questions, he distinguishes increasingly consequential Dunkelflaute events from his team's lack of a detected statistical trend in their frequency. Forecast examples and outlooks reflect the analysis presented on the event date.</p> <p><a href='https://video.montel.energy/uk-energy-day-2026-1'>Watch all UK Energy Day 2026 recordings</a> · <a href='https://montel.energy/resources/academy/conferences/uk-energy-day-2026'>View the official event programme</a></p> </p><p><a href="http://video.montel.energy/uk-weather-risk-power-system-stress"><img src="http://video.montel.energy/64968568/134072140/fc241675dbb847b2c6f2cdc1b64f54c5/standard/download-12-thumbnail.jpg" width="600" height="338"/></a></p> http://video.montel.energy/photo/134072140 Thu, 12 Nov 2026 23:02:24 GMT UK Weather Risk, Power-System Stress and the Forecast Gap | Rob Hutchinson,... Weather risk affects electricity demand, renewable output and the margins available to system operators. Rob Hutchinson, Commercial Team Lead for Energy & Utilities at Meteomatics, explains why broad seasonal forecasts and local generation forecasts answer different questions for the UK power market. Recorded at Montel's UK Energy Day 2026 at the QEII Centre in London on 10 November 2026, this presentation was titled ‘Under climate pressure: system stress and the forecast gap’. Hutchinson connects recent heat and electricity-system pressures with the practical challenge of forecasting renewable generation. What this session coversHeat and system margins: how weather-driven demand and generation changes can combine to produce difficult operating conditions outside winter.A Suffolk offshore-wind case study: how a localised squall and the following lull affected output, and why model resolution and refresh frequency matter.Winter uncertainty: the competing signals from El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warming and sea-surface temperatures.Dunkelflaute and concentrated capacity: why cold, low-wind periods and clusters of offshore wind farms can create correlated operational risks.Hutchinson describes the winter outlook as low confidence. A seasonal tendency towards milder conditions does not rule out shorter cold, low-wind spells, while a stratospheric warming event does not guarantee cold weather. In the questions, he distinguishes increasingly consequential Dunkelflaute events from his team's lack of a detected statistical trend in their frequency. Forecast examples and outlooks reflect the analysis presented on the event date. Watch all UK Energy Day 2026 recordings · View the official event programme Weather risk affects electricity demand, renewable output and the margins available to system operators. Rob Hutchinson, Commercial Team Lead for Energy & Utilities at Meteomatics, explains why broad seasonal forecasts and local generation... Montel 21:52 <p><p>Weather risk affects electricity demand, renewable output and the margins available to system operators. Rob Hutchinson, Commercial Team Lead for Energy & Utilities at Meteomatics, explains why broad seasonal forecasts and local generation forecasts answer different questions for the UK power market.</p> <p>Recorded at Montel's UK Energy Day 2026 at the QEII Centre in London on 10 November 2026, this presentation was titled ‘Under climate pressure: system stress and the forecast gap’. Hutchinson connects recent heat and electricity-system pressures with the practical challenge of forecasting renewable generation.</p> <h2>What this session covers</h2><ul><li><strong>Heat and system margins:</strong> how weather-driven demand and generation changes can combine to produce difficult operating conditions outside winter.</li><li><strong>A Suffolk offshore-wind case study:</strong> how a localised squall and the following lull affected output, and why model resolution and refresh frequency matter.</li><li><strong>Winter uncertainty:</strong> the competing signals from El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warming and sea-surface temperatures.</li><li><strong>Dunkelflaute and concentrated capacity:</strong> why cold, low-wind periods and clusters of offshore wind farms can create correlated operational risks.</li></ul><p>Hutchinson describes the winter outlook as low confidence. A seasonal tendency towards milder conditions does not rule out shorter cold, low-wind spells, while a stratospheric warming event does not guarantee cold weather. In the questions, he distinguishes increasingly consequential Dunkelflaute events from his team's lack of a detected statistical trend in their frequency. Forecast examples and outlooks reflect the analysis presented on the event date.</p> <p><a href='https://video.montel.energy/uk-energy-day-2026-1'>Watch all UK Energy Day 2026 recordings</a> · <a href='https://montel.energy/resources/academy/conferences/uk-energy-day-2026'>View the official event programme</a></p> </p><p><a href="http://video.montel.energy/uk-weather-risk-power-system-stress"><img src="http://video.montel.energy/64968568/134072140/fc241675dbb847b2c6f2cdc1b64f54c5/standard/download-12-thumbnail.jpg" width="600" height="338"/></a></p> 2026 dunkelflaute energy-day meteomatics offshore-wind rob-hutchinson security-of-supply uk-energy-day-2026 united-kingdom weather-forecasting winter-outlook